Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Breakeven day, plus an interesting question

Played 20 games, ended down $3. There were surprisingly many bubbles in this session: 38% that seems pretty high as my normal average is like 15ish. I examined each hand and determined if it was variance or bad play on my part.

check this one http://handposter.com/hand/6135
Against the hand that showed down with me, my hand is 57% equity.
Against the hands that i'm afraid of like A2 + high pair or Kx with double suited, i'm not worse than
a 45% dog. Against a random hand i'm 60%.
I think its a push. Conclusion: VARIANCE

here's another http://handposter.com/hand/6136
I'm 51% against a random hand. total bummer that i ran into AA2, which is a 68% favorite.
Conclusion: VARIANCE

another http://handposter.com/hand/6137
here i'm 55% against a random hand, 55% against the caller's hand
Conclusion: VARIANCE

After that it was just a bunch of postflop suckouts which are the most painful because I started with a decent sized stack.

One mistake I made though was pushing 2345 preflop. Its less than 50% vs a random hand. Too bad its pot limit. All of those hands are easy pushes in no limit right? Hardly any hand is worse than a flip when you factor in some fold equity. In pot limit you really have to have the best hand cause you'll get called down so light.

Obviously one fix to this bubble problem is to get my chips earlier and bust out then. I'm thinking thats actually a better strat. I'm used to no limit hold'em strategy, where the bubble is the best part for a good player.

If I see more flops early I can take advantage of the terrible players that join but have almost no chance of cashing. Maybe for this reason I should switch to non-turbo sngs. I probably won't though, because I think I can beat the turbos if I work at them.

Here's my graph for today



Now for the question:
Was talking to a friend and he mentioned a huge pot he won in a cash game. He had bottom straight on the flop and got it all in vs top set and nut flush draw. He won, but he only had 33% equity, making it a 3 way coin flip.

So, does a 3 sided object exist? Coin has 2 sides, pyramid has 4, cube has 6. What has 3 sides?

I did a quick google search and I didn't find any famous theorems/proofs. I'll ask my dad who's a mathematician. Send me an email if you know

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