February Results

All together February was a pretty good month. The last 2 days were brutal though. Disgusting is a better word. My morale is completely dead, so bad that I wasn't even confident I'd win when I sat down at a PL10 O8 game, which I lost 2 buyins at (thats terrible, for those that don't know) so at the end of last night's session I withdrew $600 from Full Tilt, which I will deposit into my account (this will be my first deposot) so I can get some bonus money. After that I'll go around bonus hunting for a while.

Here's the results for the last bit of rakeback cramming, and below is February totals.




Theres the SharkScope graph. As you can see it's been quite swingy recently. I was having a blast climbing up to that first peak...it felt great. Now I feel like shit but I'm not going to quit!!!

9 bubbles out of 21 4 handed scenarios. Thats ridiculous. Here's what I mean

http://handposter.com/hand/6153

That was surprisingly the only really bad beat. The rest was just a boat load of coolers and flips that I lost.

http://handposter.com/hand/6154
http://handposter.com/hand/6155
http://handposter.com/hand/6156
http://handposter.com/hand/6157
http://handposter.com/hand/6158
http://handposter.com/hand/6159

Plenty of losing in the middle-late stages too

http://handposter.com/hand/6160 no way im folding, oh well
http://handposter.com/hand/6161 losing to high only hands is a common trend for me


bah thats enough, I don't feel like doing more. There's quite a few mistakes actually, which I'm a bit embarrased about so I won't post those. Mostly overvaluing 4-low hands, getting committed in early stages, etc.


There's the February totals. Up $225, expecting ~$110 in rakeback. Not bad, but I definately need to step it up. As of now grinding out a real job is a way better decision. I won't give up though.




I'll post some March goals and resolutions in a bit.

Last day of February 2008

I've been cramming in as many games as possible for the last few days. Today is the last day before rake is finished accumulating for the month, so even if i lose i'll get it all back soon. I won't be reckless, of course, but I will be taking several shots over my roll. I've stopped playing $6 turbos for the moment, replacing them with mostly $11's and a few $22's thrown in. Unless I do horribly, I am expecting to hit the $1,000 mark when the rakeback arrives, posssibly before if I do well.

I've got a bunch of interesting hands to discuss, but I'll have to wait for tommarow to get to posting them.

Breakeven day, plus an interesting question

Played 20 games, ended down $3. There were surprisingly many bubbles in this session: 38% that seems pretty high as my normal average is like 15ish. I examined each hand and determined if it was variance or bad play on my part.

check this one http://handposter.com/hand/6135
Against the hand that showed down with me, my hand is 57% equity.
Against the hands that i'm afraid of like A2 + high pair or Kx with double suited, i'm not worse than
a 45% dog. Against a random hand i'm 60%.
I think its a push. Conclusion: VARIANCE

here's another http://handposter.com/hand/6136
I'm 51% against a random hand. total bummer that i ran into AA2, which is a 68% favorite.
Conclusion: VARIANCE

another http://handposter.com/hand/6137
here i'm 55% against a random hand, 55% against the caller's hand
Conclusion: VARIANCE

After that it was just a bunch of postflop suckouts which are the most painful because I started with a decent sized stack.

One mistake I made though was pushing 2345 preflop. Its less than 50% vs a random hand. Too bad its pot limit. All of those hands are easy pushes in no limit right? Hardly any hand is worse than a flip when you factor in some fold equity. In pot limit you really have to have the best hand cause you'll get called down so light.

Obviously one fix to this bubble problem is to get my chips earlier and bust out then. I'm thinking thats actually a better strat. I'm used to no limit hold'em strategy, where the bubble is the best part for a good player.

If I see more flops early I can take advantage of the terrible players that join but have almost no chance of cashing. Maybe for this reason I should switch to non-turbo sngs. I probably won't though, because I think I can beat the turbos if I work at them.

Here's my graph for today



Now for the question:
Was talking to a friend and he mentioned a huge pot he won in a cash game. He had bottom straight on the flop and got it all in vs top set and nut flush draw. He won, but he only had 33% equity, making it a 3 way coin flip.

So, does a 3 sided object exist? Coin has 2 sides, pyramid has 4, cube has 6. What has 3 sides?

I did a quick google search and I didn't find any famous theorems/proofs. I'll ask my dad who's a mathematician. Send me an email if you know

Found a donk on IRC

Funny encounter with a donk/troll on my IRC channel... we played 2 $10 heads up matches, and I won both.
He was saying stupid stuff all day, commenting on various plays, theories, etc... he had no idea what he was talking about. I remember one thought he had was that "full ring is more profitable than 6-max becuase you only win 6-max when the other players are on tilt". wtf?

then this conversation came about (I'm stevedog)

meak> any of you run winholdem?
stevedog> :LOLOOOLOLOL
stevedog> GIVING UP SO SOON MEAK HAHAHAHAH
bsr> man
meak> stevedog, would you like to play heads up for 50 dollars?
bsr> do it!
bsr> omg do it
stevedog> oh man, i dont think i can afford it
bsr> lol
stevedog> how about 10
meak> stevedog okay, are you on ftp
bsr> gotta see this man
stevedog> full tilt or stars, w/e
meak> okay
meak> how do we set it up
bsr> pick a tourney number
bsr> there is a shitload of hu sng open

meak> ok i am headsup with stevedog
meak> with my last 10 dollars
meak> stevedog
meak> i feel bad that i am going to take your money
intx> haha now I have to see this
intx> you guys playing on ftp?
meak> stevedog, after i beat you , i might give you back 5 dollars
meak> cause i feel sorry for you
meak> okay
meak> ?

heres 1 hand that they liked http://handposter.com/hand/6130

hosstito> lol 20 into 200. meak is strong
meak> what is 20 into 200
meak> what does that mean

heres the final hand, i guess i was lucky to have coolered him but whatever, its not like he stood much chance anyway http://handposter.com/hand/6131

bsr> well
hosstito> nice pwnage stevedog
stevedog> good game meak
stevedog> thx hossle
hosstito> meak: still gonna give him half his buyin back? :P
meak> i was going to
meak> if i won
stevedog> o well : )
hosstito> lolz
meak> i should have known you had the 10
stevedog> that was probably my 2nd ever heads up game ((not true lol))
meak> do you want to play again for 10
meak> double or nothing
meak> i am ging to play someone else headasup anyway
stevedog> oh
stevedog> uhh,,,, sure
meak> 41019067

i beat him that time also hehe, not a very interesting match, mostly played small pots. This was the biggest pot http://handposter.com/hand/6132 . Probably could have ended it if i raised all in on the river, not sure why i didnt.

last hand i had A8, he had A4 with like 300 chips, got it in preflop, both hit our undercards, mine held up : )

So, I walked away with $19 from that venture.

Finally back up from a brutal downswing

First content post begins at the end of a huge downswing that I hit a couple days ago. It was right after I took a shot at the $11 games, which I got destroyed at , although I didn't see much increase in skill level. Just a mix of bad luck and there were also quite a lot of deadly bubble mistakes that I made. I reviewed a bit and then I came back pretty quickly, as you can see on the graph.

Heres a few hands that you can all learn from

http://handposter.com/hand/6126

2345ds is a fine hand, and with 2 limpers its a pretty easy limp. On the flop, I'm not sure what the best move was. I've got good runner runner flushes, A and 2 give nuts. I get 4 to 1 on the flop call, turns out to be 5 to 1 after the call behind. I dunno. I'm still not even sure that the turn call was a mistake. But after there's a push and a call it's definately time to get out. I don't like having 1k chips in the first level but that's just my problem and I fixed that after I reviewed my leaks. I'm not really committed at all after I gave it some thought. It was just some tilt that got into my system and told me I'd be better off starting a new one than dying away in this one.


http://handposter.com/hand/6128

This one is also a tricky. We're on the bubble and the blinds are pretty small still. A26Q is good, but I definately overplayed it. 6high flush is not so strong, AK, any high pairs are worrysome for me preflop. I think I should have still been in the early-mid game mindset and limped, even though theres only 4 people left. As played though, I dont know what to do about that raise. I certainly cant call, and if i fold i'll have a pretty small stack. I remember thinking I'd push it all in and hope to split so I can get my money back. I found out that was a very big misconception, and I probably should have folded. Calculator says I have 35% equity. Thats pretty embarrasing for an omaha matchup, and I have A2 which feels really weird. I have to start thinking about numbers more now. I looked at all the hands I bubbled with and saw that I overplay some hands a lot.


So I thought about my game, and today was a huge winner. I played 37 sngs: 29 $6's, 8 $11's. Up $107 today.